Whether he was actually sick and tired of the Benjamin Netanyahu-led Likud party or simply concluded he would fare poorly in the next primaries, Gideon Sa'ar's move is a bold one. Not everyone has the audacity to embark on a political adventure into the unknown. Particularly someone who has been burned before, such as Sa'ar, whose independent political gambits, to this point, have ended in failure.
The big question at this stage is whether Likud voters disaffected with Netanyahu have already jumped ship to Blue and White, Naftali Bennett and others, or whether Sa'ar's departure will trigger another wave of flight from the ruling party.
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Will the election be postponed?
This question – crystallized by Communication Minister Yoaz Hendel and MK Zvika Hauser's declaration of intent to join Sa'ar – could determine the fate of the entire political system, which at present is swiftly marching toward another general election. To the extent that new polls indicate Sa'ar is siphoning votes from the Likud, Netanyahu could slam on the brakes and open serious negotiations with Benny Gantz in an attempt to stave off an early election. It would be ironic if Sa'ar's resignation from the Likud brings Gantz, and not himself, closer to the prime minister's office.
Connection with the 'anyone-but-Netanyahu' camp
It's uncertain, however, that Sa'ar will take a significant number of votes from Netanyahu. It's possible his move will do more harm to those who have already said they will vie for the premiership – Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett. Both Lapid and Bennett currently have considerable support from the 'anyone-but-Netanyahu' voters, and now a new player, playing the exact same position, has come into the game. It seems the "anyone-but-Netanyahu" camp is already too crowded and redundant.
An election under these circumstances doesn't weaken Netanyahu, rather strengthens him. It's reasonable to assume, therefore, that if an election is indeed in the offing we will see unifications and significant recruitments from outside the political system, otherwise we can already name Netanyahu the next prime minister.
Bennett's alternative coalition
The latest developments aren't soothing to Netanyahu. Although Gideon Sa'ar could be a real detriment to Bennett, his resignation from the Likud could actually bring the Yamina chairman closer to the premiership he covets. If, until today, an alternative coalition sans Likud and headed by Bennett seemed an unlikely and unrealistic scenario because it would require nonsensical alliances – such as Lapid with the Haredim or Bennett with the Left – an option now exists for a coalition between two right-wing parties, which is already a different story. This would be a coalition with legitimacy, and it doesn't include Netanyahu.
A journey into the dark
Another scenario exists, meanwhile, whereby Sa'ar quickly vanishes from the political scene and is forgotten along with his new party. Gideon Sa'ar is a well-liked figure in the television studios, mainly because he is hostile toward Netanyahu, but this isn't always enough to garner the public's affections.
Although Sa'ar is a polished and experienced politician, it's quite difficult to remember an initiative or achievement that justifies asking for the public's trust. From this perspective, even Moshe Kahlon, who said he wanted the finance portfolio rather than the premiership, entered the game with a more impressive record after reforming the cellular phone market.
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