Could the Bears turn to Nick Foles to start 2021? How that scenario plays out

It’s a sunny September afternoon in Chicago. Fans are back at Soldier Field for the first Bears home game of 2021.

The “Bear raid siren” blares from the speakers as Khalil Mack sacks Lions quarterback Jared Goff on third down. Following a 15-yard punt return from Tarik Cohen, the offense takes the field for the first time…

…led by Nick Foles.

As Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy watch Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes duel it out in Tampa on Sunday, they’re sure to be thinking about how to get the quarterback position right in Chicago. They’re going to look at every avenue — the fact that they reportedly checked in on Matthew Stafford would support that strategy.

But what if they take big swings and miss? Or what if they land a veteran quarterback and it doesn’t work out? Could they skip ahead to the draft, and have Foles be their “bridge” quarterback?

This is not to suggest Foles starting Week 1 is the likeliest scenario at this point, and it certainly doesn’t seem like the most ideal if the Bears want to be a contender in 2021, but it’s a possibility.

You know that phrase, “Prepare for the worst, hope for the best?” The Bears’ coaches have a lot of respect for Foles. However, it’s difficult to envision Foles winning the job as anywhere near the most ideal scenario for next season.

Evaluating Foles’ 2020 season

There’s no way that Foles — who averaged 5.9 yards per attempt, threw eight interceptions and 10 touchdowns, had a passer rating of 80.8 (29th in the NFL), a QBR of 43.2 (32nd) and ultimately lost his job back to Trubisky — would win a competition, right?

Here’s what Pace said about Foles at the year-end press conference.

“With Foles specifically, as we look at that, and I reflect on him and that move and he’s under contract for us, I respect the way he handled a lot of adversity this year, not just for himself in the quarterback room,” Pace said. “He was a leader in the room as a starter or as a backup. And I think you go back to when he was playing and there were some things that, in fairness to him, the offensive line was a little unsettled and the run game wasn’t quite where we wanted it to be. And then unfortunately he got injured. So I think there’s still some evaluation left out there on him.”

No one is going to doubt Foles’ intangibles, and Pace is right — a lot went wrong around Foles. He had five different offensive line combinations in seven starts, and none was the grouping that finally worked with Trubisky the final month of the season.

The Bears averaged 52.6 rushing yards in Foles’ seven starts, more than 30 yards fewer than every other team in that seven-week span. Their 2.79-yard rushing average was also last — the next worst was the Steelers at 3.36.

Foles’ seven starts came against five playoff teams — and he did notch a win against the NFC champs.

Things got so bad that Nagy relinquished play calling for Foles’ final start, another dud against Minnesota.

And then consider the fact that Foles didn’t get a full offseason with his teammates, first getting to throw in late July at the start of training camp as opposed to during OTAs in May.

“I felt good out there. Was I myself, like where I want to be? No, I wasn’t,” Foles said on Sept. 6 after Trubisky won the job, “but that’s not based on footwork or anything else, that’s based on the other circumstances that are out of your control where you are moving your family, you’re with a new offense and you’re with new players. You really get a great time in the spring to go through OTA practices and get those cobwebs out.

“That’s not an excuse, that’s just a reality of it all. But I embrace that every single day. Every day I get more and more comfortable, understanding what the coaches want from the offense, having those conversations.”

Nick Foles’ previous relationships with Bears coaches didn’t seem to make much of a difference in 2020. Could a normal offseason help? (Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)

Those things will all be part of the Bears’ evaluation, similar to what many GMs and coaches over the years have had to do when a Bears quarterback isn’t good … but neither are the pieces around him.

“I do appreciate the way that Nick handled the entire season and it wasn’t easy,” Nagy said. “And we learned as we went through that thing, just how we work as coaches, how he works as a player. I know there’s all the talk about the connections that we all had together at different times in Nick’s career and he grew a lot from when I had him as a rookie in 2012 to as a backup in Kansas City in 2016 to other coaches on staff that had him in different areas.

“And you know, you go back and you say when we ended up making the move for him, you look at that we weren’t able to have that offseason, which I do believe would have helped in a lot of different ways for him because things are different. You just can’t connect Kansas City and Philadelphia and say it’s the same offense. You can’t do that. But there’s a growing process there.

“I think that as we look at his situation, just like Ryan said, he went through and battled his tail off in regards to doing a lot of good things for us. And is there areas where he could improve? Absolutely. Are there areas we can improve as a coaching staff to help him? Yes. And so, that’s stuff that like Ryan just said, we’re three days out, we’ll evaluate all that.”

That could be a head coach defending a quarterback he has a lot of respect for, and maybe a little hint of Nagy knowing that Foles can be much better with a normal offseason with his coaches and teammates.

For Foles to be the best choice, it means the Bears didn’t land someone better. How could that play out?

Losing out on one of the coveted veteran QBs

The music plays and the GMs circle a deep group of veteran quarterbacks. It stops, and Pace is either stuck without a chair, or he settles for the one that doesn’t instill a ton of confidence in the 2021 season.

My colleague Adam Jahns went through these quarterback options, starting with Deshaun Watson.

It doesn’t take much imagination to consider a world in which Watson is not traded to Chicago.

Then you start going down the list. Jimmy Garappolo, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold are the other potential trade candidates. Then Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor and Mitch Trubisky highlight the free-agent options.

Not only are several teams in need of a quarterback, but then there’ll be a race to grab a veteran No. 2.

When the Bears survey the competition for a veteran quarterback, how do they stack up? Fortunately, players don’t analyze destinations the way position coaches might, but that doesn’t mean a team with one playoff win in a decade and its best receiver set to hit the open market is necessarily a desirable spot. They could find themselves with someone like, well, Foles — a veteran with experience and moments of greatness, but there’s always a reason a quarterback becomes available (aside from a star demanding a trade).

Could Foles win a quarterback competition?

Let’s get hypothetical here and give the Bears a veteran quarterback — let’s say Carr. He’s entering his eighth season and has gone to the playoffs once and the Pro Bowl three times. His former Raiders teammate Mack could recruit him. He’s thrown 171 touchdowns and 71 picks. He’s missed only two starts in his career.

Not a bad scenario for a team desperate for a quarterback, right?

Carr arrives in Lake Forest, but Pace and Nagy are adamant — this is going to be an open competition between Foles, Carr and a rookie.

Let’s go back to a few things Pace and Nagy said about Foles last April.

“When we got to Nick, it was really a collective effort,” Pace said. “… A talented player and the fact that he’s played in some big games and performed well in those big games and that carries a lot of weight.

“Then you have a lot of people in our building that are comfortable with him as a person and his makeup, which made the decision easier. That all kind of came together to make him a target for us and someone we wanted to aggressively go get.”

Said Nagy, “There’s a learning curve there a little bit. For the most part it’s a lot easier for him when he comes into it. Knowledge of the offense at that point helps. This is a kid who’s been through a lot of different situations; he’s been a Super Bowl MVP, he’s been in pressure moments and he understands a lot of the things that we’re looking for.”

Now, maybe Foles’ struggles in 2020 altered those evaluations. Pace, Nagy, Bill Lazor and John DeFilippo could be thinking Foles is a backup and nothing more. Or, going back to those “excuses,” could they see this as an opportunity for him to provide what they hoped for when he stepped in as the starter in Atlanta and led a comeback win?

So back to the hypothetical — you’ve got Carr going up against Foles, and the latter has aforementioned support and history with the coaching staff, not to mention a head start on the playbook and knowing what Nagy likes.

Training camp begins and when it comes to the offense, making the right reads and accomplishing what the coaches are looking for, what if Foles — thanks to that experience — outplays Carr? That didn’t happen in July and August at Halas Hall against Trubisky, but maybe all he needed was a rough 2020 campaign and then a full offseason to be the Foles whom the Bears made the aggressive play for last March.

Then there’s Foles against a rookie. How patient would the front office and coaching staff be if they drafted the guy they expect to be the future? Foles could beat a rookie in camp, but how long could he hold him off?

Will Nick Foles have a young draft pick to mentor and/or compete with during the 2021 season? (Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)

Pairing Foles with a high draft pick

Maybe the big swing the Bears take isn’t in free agency, but in the draft.

As the quarterback dominoes fall, that’ll make fewer teams in play for the top QB prospects. Trevor Lawrence is going to Jacksonville, then comes Justin Fields, Zack Wilson and Trey Lance.

If you think Pace wouldn’t trade up into the top 10 for a shot at a quarterback prospect that he thinks could be the answer — this time, with the evaluation help from Nagy — then you haven’t been paying much attention.

In this scenario, the Bears would enter 2021 with Foles and a high draft pick, maybe trying to recreate what the Chiefs struck gold with when they traded up for Patrick Mahomes, then had him spend a season backing up Alex Smith.

It might not be the type of move a GM makes in his seventh season when it’s conceivable the Bears brass is in a playoff-or-bust situation, but that doesn’t mean it’d be the wrong maneuver for the franchise. And the way Foles is as a teammate, it could be something he welcomes.

It would be quite Bears-like for this to be the ultimate result, and reflective of that memorable press conference that expressed no concrete changes to how the organization would operate. It is plausible if not likely for Foles to be in a much better spot as a quarterback next fall, given more practice time and familiarity with his coaches, linemen and receivers.

Even so, an improved Foles isn’t taking the Bears where they need to go in the short term. The outcome for the long term would be ideal if he’s a bridge to a draft pick who ultimately becomes the quarterback the franchise has been searching for since Sid Luckman.

Foles is the only quarterback under contract. As much as the Bears are going to do their due diligence searching elsewhere, they have to have a plan for the possibility that the Super Bowl MVP turns out to be their best option.

(Photo: Joe Scarnici / Getty Images)