The 2024 Startup Black Swan (or Duck) effect seems to be going from a totally unexpected area - a secondary market! I have been talking last weeks with 20+ secondary investors from the EU & US and most of them believe that the next 6-12 months are the most active in the last 10 years!
And here is WHY -
1. There have been much less primaries in the last 24 months. So stress among early investors and employees is only increasing next comings. One big startup ex-employees teamed up recently & started to find buyers separately from the company - sending emails to several VCs - is an extreme example of growing pain.
2. But companies are still pushing primaries to the future, as there is still a big gap between the 2021 boom & 2024 valuations. Before COVID usual discount for secondary deals for common shares was 20%. Now discount could be from 10% to 70% - if we leave out extreme deals when the company is totally broken. But investor's & founders' view are close every month.
3. Most growth companies have significantly improved KPIs in the direction of profit to delay the next primary round. Just yesterday I received an investor update from a company that has fundraised in total 50 mil, but did already 11 million profit last year! Beat that!
4. There are many small positive signals about price. When Klarna's valuation lost a whopping 85% from 45 billion in June 2021 to 6.7 billion in July 2022. But now - last 6 months have shown 45% increase! And same mode applies to Stripe whose shares have been growing 32% by last 6 months.
5. As harsh reality for founders is that proper secondary deal demands way more energy from companies than before. Due Diligence & data research are much bigger then ever - dragging average deal closing into several months.
By my biggest surprise, many secondary deals with hundreds of participants are run in 20+ year-old Excel. This is exactly what we have been working the last few months with Salto X - launching secondary as a service for first companies very soon.
Co-Founder of Bolt, mobility super-app of Europe & Africa (hiring!) / Enthusiast of Education, Startups, Better Cities & Doing Good
3yRagnar Sass, I would recommend replacing #EstonianMafia with #EstonianFounders, as the new decade started and diversity becomes more important :)