When asked when the right time to start rookie quarterback Justin Fields will be, Bears head coach Matt Nagy responded with, “I promise you every single person will know, including Justin, when it’s the right time, and that’s naturally how it happens.”
But will everyone know? I mean, seriously, who will actually know all the details and make the decision to move ahead? The NFL isn’t Little League, where the dominant talent is easy to spot. Deciding who will start at quarterback, who will lead the team and become the face of the franchise, is not an organic development. Trust me, not everyone will know. When can you ever get “everyone” to agree on anything? It takes planning, development and the courage to take the training wheels off because there will be growing pains. The words “ready” and “rookie quarterback” don’t go together too often, though there are some very notable exceptions (the most recent one being Justin Herbert of the Chargers.) But has there ever really been an easy decision when it comes to the quarterback position? It’s a bit easier with teams like the Jaguars and Jets, where Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson were picked with the specific intent of automatically being the starter, so there is no wait-and-see time frame. Both men were given the positions because of their college careers; Nagy is talking about earning the job, which comes with judgment, vision, timing and the willingness to risk success today for a better future tomorrow.
Advertisement
Bears fans will want Fields to start from day one because new is always better than old. Wouldn’t you rather have an unproven Justin Fields than a proven Andy Dalton? Starting Dalton under center is like having a pair of twos in a Texas Hold ’Em — they might look good on the first turn, but they’re never good enough to substantially bet or possibly win the hand. You need better cards. The first time Andy Dalton throws one of his classic red-zone interceptions, Bears fans will be on their feet screaming for Fields. But position coaches love to play it safe and often want to start the season with the player who makes their lives easier, meaning the player who knows “what to do.” Much like Tyrod Taylor in Los Angeles last year, the incumbent usually has the edge with the coaches because they hate uncertainty. If a player makes mental or physical mistakes during a game or practice, those mistakes reflect badly on the coach’s teaching skills. Last season, the Chargers had no choice but to play Herbert and live with the mistakes—which were few. They looked silly after Herbert played, causing most to ask, why wasn’t he the starter from day one?
It’s likely because putting a rookie quarterback in charge is not an “everyone” decision, as Nagy suggested. Not everyone can see potential, not everyone can predict the future, nor can everyone understand the effects of not naming the rookie the starter. Only one man can make this call — the head coach. (Matt, this one is on you, and it’s why you make the big bucks.) Nagy has to stand in front of the team with conviction, a decision based on the evidence gleaned from practice and preseason work. Not everyone will be on board; not everyone will understand the rationale — which is fine.
Last year this exact situation occurred in Miami when head coach Brian Flores displaced starter Ryan Fitzpatrick after a Week 6 win against the Jets to insert rookie Tua Tagovailoa. At that point, the Fins were 3-3 and won their second game in a row. Was that the right time to make a change? Was Tua better than Fitzpatrick? No, look at the numbers. On first down, Fitz averaged 9.02 yards per attempt; Tua, 6.72. On third down, Fitzpatrick was at 5.55 yards per attempt, whereas Tua was at 4.65. Those numbers are real — and Flores took a huge leap of faith moving to Tua. He knew it wasn’t obvious to everyone; he also knew he had to protect the team from losing in the short-term, which is why he pulled Tua in Denver and Las Vegas. Flores couldn’t risk losing the team, so he showed great courage to make the moves needed — even though he risked messing with his rookie quarterback’s mindset. He knew he needed to play Tua even though Tua was not ready, and even though not everyone agreed.
What if the Bears lose three games in a row next season during October as the Ravens did during Lamar Jackson’s rookie year? Would then be the right time for Nagy to make a move? Before Jackson made his first start against the Bengals in Week 11 and after the Ravens’ bye week in Week 10, he had thrown 12 passes in NFL regular-season games and had 28 rushing attempts. He played sparingly — no one was sure what he could do or how he could impact the offense. Back then, Jackson was thought of as a gadget player, a player they hoped could spark their dull offense led by Joe Flacco. It’s almost certain that the decision to start Jackson in Week 11 was not a unanimous one throughout the Ravens organization. Head coach John Harbaugh had to make the tough choice, hoping the success he observed from Jackson throwing the ball in practice would transfer over to the game field. Harbaugh was not certain; not everyone saw the potential or thought Jackson would become the NFL MVP 12 months later. It was a calculated risk.
Advertisement
You might ask: What happens if Fields beats out Dalton or last year’s starter Nick Foles during the preseason? That would be hard to imagine because Fields will need to learn how to play faster, command the language of the Bears’ offense and be fluent in making the right checks and calls. This is not a knock on Fields, it’s just the reality of the situation. It will take time for Lawrence and Wilson to learn as well. The difference is Lawrence and Wilson will get all the reps in practice and games, which means they can grow within the offense at a faster rate. Think of all three men learning a new language, because learning a new offense is similar. Lawrence and Wilson will take a class every day for 15 hours a day, and Fields will take one for three. Who will speak the language faster? It takes more than three preseason games and limited reps at training camp.
College quarterbacks spend so much time staring at the sideline looking for the play, based on the famous cards with different pictures — which helps the entire offense understand the play. They enter the league without a baseline language to enhance their development. They never call plays in the huddle, never have to remind the back to not leave too early, as — for example — the Will linebacker loves to delay blitz, or the slot corner cheats when he is coming. College quarterbacks can focus on what they have to do, whereas pro quarterbacks must tell everyone what to do and have the ability to rattle off the language with the flow and an emphasis on certain words. If a rookie quarterback cannot communicate the offensive language to the team, it becomes hard for him to participate instantly.
To start Fields as a rookie from day one would require a leap of faith from Nagy and a willingness to suffer early in the season if the growing pains cause the Bears’ offense to lack consistency. Some coaches may fear that scenario, but Nagy should look past this season and give all the reps to Fields, announcing him as the day one starter. The best chance the Bears have to compete for a playoff spot this season and next will be if Fields becomes a blue-chip talent. Why waste time messing with Dalton?
When the season begins, if Nagy does not have the guts to start Fields, he will eventually have to make the change based on three factors. No. 1: The season is slipping away; what do we have to lose? We might save our job if the kid plays well — even though we don’t think he will. No. 2: Fields is dominating in practice, and we can no longer ignore the obvious. No. 3: Our present starter cannot win, and everyone knows it, so let’s make a change to make the fans happy even though the kid is not ready.
Of those three options facing Nagy, No. 1 is probably the reality based on the Bears’ overall current talent level. Even though the Bears went to the playoffs last season at 8-8, the odds of their win total for the 2021 season is set at seven wins. Rarely does a playoff team have their win total reduced the following season, yet the experts who set those odds are not enthused with the Bears’ moves this offseason. And can you blame them? Other than their problems at quarterback, the Bears lack a solid offensive line, inflamed by the recent release of their starting left tackle Charles Leno. Leno was by no means a great left tackle, but to turn the job over to rookie second-round pick Teven Jenkins is risky considering the right tackle position remains unsettled as well. With concerns at both tackles, quarterback and a need for a backup runner, the Bears’ offense is questionable. With Nagy returning as the ultimate play designer and caller, the promises of the Bears having a great season remain doubtful — which then leads to playing Fields because of Factor No. 1. Nagy knows his future is risky, but if (and that’s a big if) Fields can play well, he can save his job regardless of the win total.
Advertisement
Drafting Fields has given Nagy the mulligan he needed to potentially save his job. The decision to use that mulligan won’t be obvious to all, only Nagy. Will Nagy have the courage and vision to make the call? If he waits until the choice is obvious to all, he might have wasted the one card he can play to save his future.
(Photo by Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)