I know this post is going to anger some of my regular readers. Sorry if that’s so but I’ve always posted what I believe rather than what I think you want to read.
There’s an old joke about a man who falls from the top of the Empire State building in New York. As he plummets towards the ground passing the fifth floor he’s heard to say “So far, so good”
Temperature change in the last 50 years. 2011-2020 average versus 1951-1980 baseline.
Climate Change Reports
Reading the reports from the Met Office here in Britain and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, I fear we’re like the man in the joke above. I say ‘reading the reports’ but the truth is that most of the reports are beyond me. The IPCC report runs to 1800 pages in scientific language.
For those of us without a scientific background, the IPCC provides a summary for policy makers which states the headline information in layman’s language. The regional fact sheets are easy to follow too.
The Facts
The simple fact is that our climate is changing in main due to the CO2 our civilisation has produced and even if we take drastic action now, things are going to be tricky. By ‘we’ I mean everyone in the world, especially those of us in the wealthy countries.
Will we change?
I’m not convinced that we will do what is needed despite it being clear we need to. We all agree that other people should do what is needed but relatively few are willing to do it themselves. Just look at people complaining about travel restrictions with Covid. Moaning bitterly at paying for tests so they can fly off to the sun. Imagine the reaction if they were told they couldn’t fly abroad because of the carbon emissions!
What the future will bring
For us in the UK, the next 20 years are going to bring more storms, heatwaves, droughts, floods, flash floods from high rainfall events. This is going to make farming and home growing more difficult, but not impossible.
In some areas of the world, things will be a lot worse. This includes countries that produce food for export at the moment. For example: a lot of our salad crops come from the plastic city of Almeria and Spain is going to be in real trouble with climate change. Less rain leading to droughts, fires and desertification. Grain producing regions of the world will be badly hit too.
I firmly believe we are going to have food shortages in the future and the time to prepare is now.
Denial is Insane
I wish it was a hoax but it isn’t.
I touched on the Met Office report in my last newsletter and had a couple of semi-literate emails back that basically said they didn’t like what I said and climate change isn’t real. Apparently their ‘research’ disproved climate change. By research they mean some videos on Youtube or a conspiracy theory group on Facebook.
The IPCC report has 10 pages of citations. Respected, qualified scientists from universities like Cambridge who have research this for years. It was signed off on by 197 governments. Take your pick who you want to believe.
I understand why they don’t want to believe climate change is real and man-made. It’s scary and they lack the ability to look at the reports and studies. Much better if it’s all a con that they were clever enough to see through. I wish that were true.
I’m sure the people in Greece suffering the wildfires and Italy coping with temperatures in the high 40’s (near 120ºF for US readers) wish it was all a fake.
Anyway, I could be wrong and things won’t be as bad as I fear in 10 years. I’ve done what I can to prepare and hope our governments will realise those annoying people from Extinction Rebellion and that Greta Thunberg actually have a real point about the urgency of the situation. Those scientists certainly do.
Thanks for writing about this critical issue. It is scary but burying heads in conspiracy sand is not going to resolve it. I am hopeful that the world is finally stirring from sleep and we are a resourceful species and Nature never fails to amaze me with her ability to regenerate. 39 ways to save the planet on BBC Radio 4 is a a great listen if you are feeling overwhelmed.
That’s a good series, Amanda. Thanks for sharing it. There’s a lot that we can do as individuals and our governments need to prioritise our response as a society. We just need the will to do it.
Interesting stuff John and whilst we do what we can in the UK the major issue is with the emissions in The US, China and the predicted rise in India over next 40 years. How do we convince them to reduce theirs? As well as the CO2 there is the rise in methane from the melt of the permafrost in Siberia and other places in the Arctic regions not to mention landfill sites. Another report this week made note of a change in the North Atlantic’s Gulf Stream, when that fails which could well happen when the ice caps melt the weather is going to be interesting to say the least.
Just a quick point about China: look around your house and I bet, like mine, it will be full of “stuff” made there. They are creating CO2 in the interests of us and other consumers around the world who have the nasty habit of buying their goods. Their emissions are therefore, in part at least, our responsibility. See also the comment below making similar points.
A very pertinent point!
The old adage “Think globally, act locally” is one I have always used. It does help to keep me grounded!
Excellent piece John and thank you for writing it here. I’d also add that there is little point in any of us in the UK pointing at other countries and use what we perceive they are doing or not doing as a reason for us not to change our way of living. It is like when we were kids and would try and explain to our parent that other kids ‘are allowed to’ do what ever it was we wanted to persuade them to let us do. Just as we were told then, it is about each one of making an informed choice that meets out individual values.
Thanks for commenting on this John. All pebbles in a pond create ripples, so on this issue it’s important to keep chucking in rocks. For all the science in the world, I don’t think we have any idea of what’s coming and I fear it is going to be worse than anything we can imagine now. (And by nature I’m an eternal optimist). My view, for what it’s worth, is that humanity needs a fundamental change in viewpoint… away from ‘my little, so (un)important, life’ to ‘Life in all its fullness and magnificence’ of which i am a tiny spark …. If we, as a species, cannot make this jump, we will be extinguished. And maybe that’s the only possible outcome. Whichever way it goes, if we can’t make the change, the Earth will do it for us. Our choice.
Many thanks for this, John.
EVERYBODY has got to start thinking about climate change. It may not be too late. The crucial and inescapable thing is to stop extracting and using fossil fuels.
Well said, John. Thank you
Thanks for posting this John. You are absolutely correct. There will inevitably be food shortages due to climate change, and it will even become more challenging for those of use growing our own, as weather becomes more unpredictable and extreme.
For those who say “It’s no use us doing anything, because of China”, I have two answers. One is that we have a historical responsibility. The vast majority of man made CO2 in the atmosphere is from developed countries that have benefited from fossil fuels since the industrial revolution. The second is that a huge proportion of the emissions from China are from manufacturing of ‘stuff’ that we consume in the West. We have outsourced our manufacturing and then the UK government has claimed a drop in emissions. The answer is that we need to consume less, as well as having an immediate moratorium on fossil fuel exploration and extraction.
Thanks for your committed thoughts on Climate Change. The facts on Global Heating have been known for a long time and millions of pounds have been spent by those who benefit from the use of fossil fuel in order to keep those facts secret. If we educate our friends by telling them those facts we can still avoid the worst of it.
Well said John. One of the real tragic ironies of this is that the people who are suffering most are in the less developed countries which aren’t responsible for the changes. We all need to do what we can to make lifestyle changes. Maybe not all at once, but what we can, as well as lobby politicians etc to make national changes. I belong to a group on Facebook called Sustainable Steps which encourages all sorts of changes (including growing your own and tree planting) which helps me a lot.
I’m very pleased to see your straightforward article and agree with many of the comments made here. It is no good using other countries and other people’s actions as an excuse for ourselves individually to do nothing. That is to let despair get the better of us, and we owe it to our children to act with hope. Hard as it might be, we all have to look honestly at our own consumption levels and get on with making changes we can ourselves. By the looks of things we’ll be waiting a long time for efficient political leadership on the matter. I hope I’m wrong about that.
I enjoy your oft re-call of DIG FOR VICTORY. As a nation we seem to have responded admirably to existential wartime threats. Now and the future is equally dangerous. We must respond both individually and through Government.
I can just re-call rationing of food, fuel, etc. Each individual had their allocation. We need something like this now to make sure that individual allocations are fair and not distributed according to privilege, riches, etc. The total national ration would need to be set suitably low to suit the climate. Some folk, due to their thrift or enterprise (OAP’s, students?), may not use all their quota and could sell it to those who needed more. It might be cumbersome but could be seen as just and fair.
Beyond that, think again about not utilising fossil fuels: it is the conversion of these to atmospheric carbon that is problematic, not their extraction for making things. We need to think hard about reducing cement use for building etc – industrial use of calcium carbonate. Polymer houses, from oil, may be a good bet. Same goes for cars, etc, to avoid smelting iron ore.
Besides trying to lower air carbon, we need to start measures to mitigate the adverse consequences of climate change. Wildfire is now an imminent risk, in both hemispheres which substantially negates tree/hedge planting as prophylactic unless done wisely. Diseases and pestilence are liable to become great challenges, with much more dangerous viruses with and without transmission through new insects.
Famine, of course, will be an inevitable visitor.
Time to pull our socks up!!
John, your post started with an apology but it’s not needed, and it’s gratifying to see that none of those who have commented so far appear to have been angered by what you have said, on the contrary you seem to be in the midst of a supportive community – congratulations!
Thank you for coming out so clearly on this subject. As fellow gardeners and allotmenteers I’d say we have a huge common interest in working together on climate change, even if this is only starting small, in our own backyards as it were, and moving onward to think more globally.
So I would welcome more from your perspective, and would love to be part of a debate on the issues and the actions we can take together or individually….
I have had a couple of comments that I haven’t allowed – 1 total denial and 1 pushing a political agenda. Obviously I censor things because I am a gelded lackey of the Global Tech Overlords working towards complete control of the masses! 🙂 Or maybe because I know some people cannot be argued with as they know more than the scientists and their climate modelling super computers
Hello John,
We had a similar scary report in the late 1980s. Prince Charles addressed MEPs in Brussels about only 20 years to save the planet.
It’s obvious climate is changing, but do we really know that it is CO2 that is the cause. David Bellamy, did not think it was the cause and never worked on TV again. And if it is a forgone conclusion, why was the University of East Anglis caught fiddling temp rise figures, because they did not support the theory.
So your argument boils down to 3 things:
1 a speech by Prince Charles warning the planet was in danger. Well we’re still here but a lot has been done in the last 40 years to improve the environment. Besides, HRH isn’t a PhD in environmental sciences and climate modelling.
2 David Bellamy – In 1997, he stood unsuccessfully at Huntingdon against the incumbent Prime Minister John Major for the Referendum Party. Bellamy credited this campaign with the decline in his career as a popular celebrity and television personality. (Wikipedia)
3 East Anglia – why not read this page: https://www.factcheck.org/2009/12/climategate/ which breaks that down.
CO2 levels in the atmosphere have been measured and the increase is undeniable and records do show temperatures heading upwards. There is a scientific model explaining how it does it. If you delve into the IPCC report and go further into the papers they cite you’ll see that it really is beyond debate. As the science has developed the accuracy of the models and scope of the problem becomes clearer.
Hope that helps you.
John, what a brilliant article. I still remember as an apprentice engineer (now well in to retirement) discussing the vulnerability of the planet. The fragile, protective layer around us was described a being equal to the thickness of ‘huffing’ on a snooker ball. It seems that only in recent years has the issue been taken at all seriously.
Surely one of the most damaging aspects is the continuous acceleration in consumption of all material things. I am in my 70’s and I have various bits and pieces around that belonged to my parents or were obtained in my youth. Not very much of what is produced today will last anything like that long. We have to make things that won’t last so we buy more. People live longer. Few of us, in the western world any way, die young. The planet is bursting at the seams will people and their ‘stuff’.
Now the controversial bit… Surely biggest problem is too many people for the planet to sustain. Think about it. Not enough seats on trains for all of the people; not enough houses to accommodate all of the people; chopping down forests to make way for more growing space to feed all of the people… You can see the common factor and there is plenty more to add to the list. Maybe if covid doesn’t kill off lots of us then flood, fire and tempest will. Ultimately something will have to CHANGE. Just maybe it is not too late to save the planet but it maybe too late to save the inhabitants.