Russia's 'three-part plan' to claim victory in Ukraine
Russia is planning to launch a three-factor plan to destabilise and claim victory in Ukraine, a top Ukrainian military intelligence officer has said.
According to Major General Vadym Skibitsky, the plan will begin this month.
1. Military operations
Moscow will launch military operations that take advantage of Ukraine's ongoing material and manpower shortages, the Institute for the Study of War quoted Gen Skibitsky as saying.
As Ukraine waits for fresh US military assistance to filter to the frontline, Gen Skibitskyi said Russian forces are likely to continue pursuing their long-time goal of seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
2. Disinformation campaign
The second part of the plan, according to Gen Skibitskyi, involves spreading false information about Ukraine's mobilisation and the legitimacy of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The Kremlin has taken advantage of Mr Zelenskyy's presidential term ending on 20 May, claiming after that he will not be a legitimate leader, the ISW, a leading US-based thinktank, said.
But Ukraine's decision not to hold a presidential election is in line with the country's constitution, which allows a sitting president to continue to serve during times of war.
3. Isolate Ukraine internationally
Gen Skibitskyi said Russia aims to stop, or at least limit, critical provisions of security and military assistance to Ukraine as its third factor of destabilisation.
Moscow also wants to block Ukraine's ability to form a network of partners that support a potential peace agreement.
"They will shake the situation as much as they can," Gen Skibitskyi said.
He added wars like the one in Ukraine only end with treaties and that both Russia and Ukraine are competing for the most favourable position ahead of potential peace talks that could begin as early as the second half of 2025.