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OBSERVER: Latest European State of the Climate shows that 2021 was a year of contrasts

Europe experienced its warmest summer on record in 2021, accompanied by severe floods in western Europe and dry conditions in the Mediterranean.

Published by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the European State of the Climate report offers a comprehensive annual overview of climate conditions across Europe and the Arctic. The latest edition, released on April 22, Earth Day, confirms that whilst 2021 wasn’t the warmest on record, it was nonetheless part of a concerning trend.

“Although 2021 was cooler than 2020, it was still one of the warmest on record for our planet,” says C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. “The last seven calendar years, last year included, were the warmest ever recorded, and 2021 ranked between the fifth and seventh warmest for the globe.”   

For Europe, the year ranked just outside the top ten warmest years.

Europe experienced its warmest summer on record in 2021, accompanied by severe floods in western Europe and dry conditions in the Mediterranean. Published by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the European State of the Climate report offers a comprehensive annual overview of climate conditions across Europe and the Arctic. The latest edition, released on April 22, Earth Day, confirms that whilst 2021 wasn’t the warmest on record, it was nonetheless part of a concerning trend. “Although 2021 was cooler than 2020, it was still one of the warmest on record for our planet,” says C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. “The last seven calendar years, last year included, were the warmest ever recorded, and 2021 ranked between the fifth and seventh warmest for the globe.”    For Europe, the year ranked just outside the top ten warmest years.
Caption: Summer (June–August) temperature anomalies over land for Europe as a whole from 1950–2021, relative to the 1991–2020 reference period. Data source: ERA5, E-OBS. Credit: C3S/ECMWF/KNMI.

A similar situation was observed in the Arctic where, compared to 2020, temperatures were less extreme and sea ice extent was below average throughout the year. At the end of the melt season in September, Arctic sea ice extent was the 12th lowest on record. During summer and autumn, it was well above the record-low values seen in previous years, the exception being the Greenland Sea which saw a record low sea ice minimum.

The Greenland ice sheet continued to lose mass during 2020 (the latest year with consolidated data), albeit at a lower rate than the years before. During 2021 much-above-average temperatures over Greenland in July and August, led to three large-scale melt events, though the impact on the total mass balance is yet to be determined. Glaciers continued to lose mass during 2021, and this ice loss contributed to the ongoing rise in global sea levels, which increased by about 9 cm between 1993 and 2021. 

“Climate variability means that we won’t see record high temperatures or record low Arctic sea ice every year,” adds Freja Vamborg, C3S Senior Scientist and the report’s lead author. “But the overarching trend remains abundantly clear – global temperatures continue to increase, ice and glaciers continue to melt, and sea levels continue to rise.”

Record-breaking extremes

Not only did Europe experience its warmest summer on record in 2021 (1.0°C above average), but it also suffered from a spate of extreme – and deadly – weather events, including heatwaves, wildfires and flooding.

 Average of the maximum daily Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for summer (June to August) 2021 (left) and for the summers of the 1991 to 2020 reference period (right). Data source: UTCI based on ERA5. Credit: C3S/Copernicus EMS/ECMWF.
 Average of the maximum daily Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for summer (June to August) 2021 (left) and for the summers of the 1991 to 2020 reference period (right). Data source: UTCI based on ERA5. Credit: C3S/Copernicus EMS/ECMWF.

For example, northeast Europe and the Mediterranean region were affected by high levels of heat stress in 2021 as a result of strong, often record-shattering, heatwaves. In western Europe, a slow-moving, low-pressure system brought moist air from an unusually warm Baltic Sea into the region, causing record-breaking precipitation on already saturated soils along the Belgian-German border. This in turn led to record river discharge and extreme flooding in Belgium, Germany and some surrounding countries.    

Credit: C3S/ECMWF
Credit: C3S/ECMWF

While the amount of cloud cover and sunshine remained roughly on par to previous years, wind speed was lower in parts of Europe. According to the ESOTC, northwest and central Europe experienced wind speeds well-below the annual average, with parts of Ireland, the UK, Czechia, Denmark and Germany seeing the lowest or second-lowest speeds in over 40 years.

Rankings of annual average 100 m wind speeds in 2021 from lowest (dark blue) to highest (dark red) within the 43-year record which covers 1979 to 2021. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
Rankings of annual average 100 m wind speeds in 2021 from lowest (dark blue) to highest (dark red) within the 43-year record which covers 1979 to 2021. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

Framing the big picture

As well as covering extreme events, the ESOTC also provides updates on temperature and greenhouse gases, along with other key climate indicators such as sea level, glacier and ice sheet melt rate and soil moisture. It does this by building on a wealth of data derived from in situ observations, satellites, models and reanalysis. For the latter, historical conditions are reconstructed by combining past observations with computer models to see how trends evolve over longer periods of time.

The report details the types of data used to explore individual events and trends, as well as the reference periods used to compare the present climate with the past. The findings are based on data and expertise from across the C3S community and from other Copernicus Services and external partners.

A vital benchmark for future climate assessments, the C3S flagship report presents clear, high-quality information on climate trends to support evidence-based decision-making. “By putting last year’s data in the context of long-term trends, the ESOTC gives us the opportunity to see beyond the immediate events and understand the bigger picture– something that is critical for taking meaningful action to deal with a rapidly changing climate,” concludes Buontempo.  

About C3S

Implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission, with funding from the European Union, C3S provides free authoritative information on the past, present and future climate that enables public and private-sector decision makers to ensure their actions contribute to the Zero Emissions agenda, and to a sustainable future for all.

Discover more of the report’s findings by exploring the ESOTC interactive summary