The 2023 Wellington Regional Housing and Business Capacity Assessment Update (HBA) has been completed by the ten councils of the Wairarapa-Wellington-Horowhenua region, taking a 30 year look from 2021-2051 at demand for housing and business land, compared to land available or identified for future growth. The HBA also analyses capacity for the necessary infrastructure to support this growth, such as three waters (drinking, storm and waste) and transport.
The HBA is a requirement of the National Policy Statement for Urban Development Capacity 2020.
This is a full revision of the HBA, including business land, and will inform the 2024 long-term plans and a Future Development Strategy for the Wairarapa-Wellington-Horowhenua Region.
Overall finding
The 2023 HBA shows that across the region over 99,000 houses will be required by 2053 to meet demand. Based on current district plans, there will be plenty of opportunity for this, with over 206,000 homes enabled. This work assists Council and community understanding of housing trends and demands.
The region has sufficient business land capacity, based on a qualitative analysis of the following types of capacity:
- Over 36,600,000m2 (floorspace) potentially available for redevelopment (that’s if every site was demolished and rebuilt)
- Over 7,100,0002 (floorspace) vacant (at time of modelling) that could be redeveloped in the short term
- Over 17,000,000m2 (floorspace) available for infill development
However, we know that demand for industrial land requires larger footprint sites, and due to current land zoning and availability, this category is likely to have a shortfall. A separate project has been commissioned to confirm industrial land demand and identify suitable areas.
HBAs are updated every three years to support well-informed and timely planning decisions, which ultimately seek to achieve competitive markets and improved housing affordability.
The Wellington Regional HBA includes a Regional Summary Chapter and separate Chapters for each Council area. Appendices include further details on methodologies, reports and modelling undertaken or commissioned for the HBA.
The 2023 HBA builds on the baseline data provided by the first HBA in 2019, and the 2022 housing only update, and is designed to provide local authorities with a robust evidence base to inform district plans, decisions, and related strategies, as well as to provide specific reports to inform the community.