Australia needs a Monroe Doctrine for the South Pacific

If China keeps incrementally building up a security presence in the region, we’re going to see corruption of elites and interference in politics and media by the Chinese Communist Party, including the toppling of politicians it doesn’t like. Not to mention the security and sovereignty risks that will arise for these small states, up against a much larger power that is unafraid to play outside the rules-based order.

Australia’s unsustainable approach

These risks to the region are also risks to Australia. Overall, they invite instability – the costs of which Australian soldiers and taxpayers know all too well.

Our current, reactive approach is in every respect unsustainable.

Consider how China’s proposal to build an undersea internet cable forced Australia into the costly business of cable financing. Or how a scoping visit by Chinese officials to explore a military base locked Australia into a hugely expensive counter-bid.

The looming threat by a Chinese firm to buy Digicel forced us to strongarm our former national carrier into buying up a multibillion-dollar asset it didn’t want.

Australia has worked hard and done well to counter most of China’s malign actions to date. But individual Chinese successes were only a matter of time, as shown by the recent security deal China struck with Solomon Islands.

As China’s proposed new 10-country security agreement shows, the odds are stacked against us.

There are an infinite number of military bases and deals China can propose. Australia will be bankrupt well before it can block every one with counter offers. And we are not even facing equal costs: proposing these sort of initiatives costs China almost nothing, while countering them can cost billions.

A new security treaty

So, what’s the alternative?

To stop the downward spiral, Australia should join with one or more Pacific countries to propose a new regional security treaty that explicitly bans non-resident powers from basing or deploying military personnel in the Pacific region. This would allow powers already present – such as the US – to stay, but the region would be off-limits for new military entrants.

It would not exclude engagement with China in other areas – such as climate change and development assistance. Many countries in the region have a strong interest in continuing to engage in these and other areas, and the treaty would be no barrier to this co-operation.

Such a proposal would also have the benefit of aligning with Pacific Island countries’ desire to limit great-power competition, as countries like the Federated States of Micronesia have made very clear.

Australian leaders and officials should make plain that Chinese military presence, as a non-Pacific power, would increase regional instability and raise the risk of conflict.

Australia should also use the treaty to further deepen and grow its already deep connectivity with the region. Foremost among the areas to expand is labour mobility. While this is likely to be a contentious issue politically for the new government, it is the key to deepening regional enmeshment and would likely be a core component to any deal.

Another area we should expand access to is Australia’s education and healthcare systems. As we deepen engagement and face the unfortunate realities of climate-change-induced people flows, it makes sense for Australia to ensure Pacific populations are able to move as seamlessly as possible into more employment areas, with qualifications instantly recognised in Australia.

We should also substantially expand and back Pacific journalism across the region: an Australia network for the 21st century and with Pacific voices in the driving seat.

Australia has enormous advantages over China in the Pacific region, be it cultural connections, sport, religion, democracy or people-to-people ties. Australia and its partners in the region should draw on this reservoir of connectivity and common interest in peace and stability to create a lasting solution to a situation that risks spinning beyond the region’s control.

Fergus Hanson is a director at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.