A significant escalation in fighting along the frontlines in the Donetsk region of Ukraine has been reported overnight, but there was no confirmation from Kyiv officials that it marked the start of their long-planned counteroffensive.
Russia claimed to have repelled a “major offensive” in the Donetsk region and to have killed hundreds of Ukrainian troops, but the claims could not be independently verified. A Moscow-backed militia leader, the head of the Wagner mercenary group and Russian military bloggers said Ukrainian forces had achieved breakthroughs at some points.
The only comment from a senior Ukrainian official on Monday was a cryptic one from the head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak, who tweeted: “True wisdom is to be able to convince the enemies they have already lost.
“Victory or defeat, it is born in heads first,” he added, suggesting that winning or losing started as a state of mind.
Asked about the reports of major offensive operations, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian armed forces’ general staff told Reuters news agency: “We do not have such information and we do not comment on any kind of fake.”
Over the weekend, Ukrainian leaders emphasised the need for secrecy about operations in recent days as anticipation grew for a major counteroffensive. Ukrainian military officers have predicted that any such counteroffensive would be preceded and accompanied by feints and diversionary attacks to “shape the battlefield” and cause as much confusion as possible in Russian ranks.
The defence ministry in Moscow said Ukraine had attacked with six mechanised and two tank battalions from two brigades in five sectors of the front in Donetsk.
“The enemy’s goal was to break through our defences in the most vulnerable, in its opinion, sector of the front,” it said. “The enemy did not achieve its tasks, it had no success.”
The ministry claimed 250 Ukrainian troops had been killed, and 16 tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles and 21 armoured personnel carriers destroyed. It also claimed that Valery Gerasimov, the Russian chief of general staff, had been near the frontlines when the attack was repelled. The Russian defence ministry has consistently made exaggerated claims about the casualties its forces have inflicted.
The ministry statement named the Ukrainian units involved as the 23rd and 31st mechanised brigades in the attack, neither of which are listed as among the 12 western equipped units in the leaked Pentagon Papers. A two-brigade deployment would represent a significant attack, but is not itself a full-sized breakthrough force.
Videos posted online showed what were purported to be Ukrainian armoured cars blowing up in fields near Velyka Novosilka, 60 miles west of Donetsk city, but it was impossible to tell from the videos when they were taken and what the outcome of the battle was.
The daily update from the Ukrainian general staff on Sunday made no mention of a major offensive in Donetsk but did report 29 clashes in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and 15 airstrikes on enemy troops across the country.
The Institute for the Study of War in Washington, which monitors signs of troop movements, said: “Ukrainian forces conducted local ground attacks and reportedly made limited tactical gains in western Donetsk oblast and eastern Zaporizhzhia oblast.”
Alexander Khodakovsky, the head of the pro-Moscow Vostok Battalion in the Donbas, said there had been Ukrainian military gains south of the town of Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk.
“The enemy is trying to break through. Having grouped their forces into a fist, they were able to achieve tactical success,” Khodakovsky said on Telegram. “They took one position from us, but suffered tangible losses.”
Later on Monday, Khodakovsky reported that German-made Leopard tanks had been spotted among the attacking forces, as Ukraine’s army pressed its advantage
“The enemy, having felt our weak points, is stepping up his efforts. For the first time we saw Leopards in our tactical area,” he said. “As I predicted yesterday, smelling the scent of success, the enemy will throw additional forces into the battle.”
Russian military bloggers also said Ukraine had breached Russian lines in Velykonovosilkivskyi. The military journalist and propagandist Semyon Pegov wrote on his Wargonzo blog: “This time the news is much more disturbing.”
“This is not about panic but about the need for well-coordinated work,” Pegov wrote. “Good luck to the guys at the front, today will obviously not be an easy day.”
Farther north-west along the Donetsk front, the head of the Wagner group mercenary organisation, Yevgeny Prigozhin, complained that Berkhivka, a settlement north of Bakhmut, had fallen to Ukrainian forces.
“Now part of the settlement of Berkhivka has already been lost, the troops are quietly running away. Disgrace,” Prigozhin said in an audio message published by his own press outlet. He challenged Gerasimov and Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, to come to the frontlines themselves.
“Come on, you can do it,” Prigozhin taunted. “And if you can’t, you’ll die as heroes.”
Igor Girkin, a Russian nationalist critic of the Kremlin and former “defence minister” in the Russian-installed authority in Donetsk, said it was clear Ukraine “has not yet made full use of his main forces”.
He added: “If the enemy’s offensive has really begun, and is not a ‘test of strength’, the intensity of the battles will only increase in the coming days. The outcome of the battle is not yet completely predetermined – it is just beginning.”
On Monday, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said his troops continued “moving forward” near Bakhmut but he made no comment on the counteroffensive.
Ukraine-backed Russian rebels kept up their offensive inside the Russian region of Belgorod. The incursion launched on Thursday by the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps was aimed at the town of Shebekino, and on Monday the rebels claimed to have destroyed Russian armoured vehicles on the outskirts of town.
Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, posted a message on Twitter on Sunday, quoting from the Depeche Mode song Enjoy the Silence. “Words are very unnecessary They can only do harm,” the tweet said.
Also on Sunday, Ukraine’s armed forces published a video on social media of soldiers facing the camera and putting their finger to their lips, underlining the need for secrecy. In an interview published the same day in the Wall Street Journal, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said preparations for the counteroffensive had been completed.
Ukraine made striking gains in liberating occupied territory late last year, but Russian forces have had several months since to prepare defensive positions. There is widespread apprehension among Ukrainian forces over the human cost of a counteroffensive, but also awareness that the cost could grow the longer Kyiv waits.
Zelenskiy said Ukraine did not have all the western weapons it had wanted to start the counteroffensive but could no longer wait. He warned that “a large number of soldiers will die”.
Ukraine has readied 12 brigades, an estimated 60,000 troops, to spearhead an attack it hopes will show it can force the Russian invaders, who total about 300,000, from its territory, some of which has been occupied since 2014.