PiS has most votes, but opposition could have route to government
Shaun Walker
An exit poll in Poland’s parliamentary election suggested the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party had won the most votes but, if it turns out to be accurate, appeared to show a possible route to government for a combined opposition coalition led by former prime minister and European Council president Donald Tusk.
However, an exit poll in Slovakia’s election earlier this month appeared to show a victory for a progressive coalition, only for the actual results to be strikingly different. It will be later in the night on Sunday, and perhaps well into Monday when the final results become available.
The exit poll put PiS on 36.8% and Tusk’s Civic Coalition on 31.6%. However, two groups that could form a coalition with Tusk also did well, with 13% for the centre-right Third Way and 8.6% for the leftwing Lewica.
Such a result would mean that the three combined parties would probably have the majority of mandates in Poland’s 460-seat parliament. In a further piece of potential good news for Poland’s progressives, the exit poll put Confederation, a far-right coalition tipped to get about 9% of the vote, on 6.2%, lower than pre-election polls had estimated their support to be.
Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister and European Council president, claimed victory in Poland’s parliamentary election on Sunday, making the announcement just minutes after the polls closed, based on the results of an exit poll.
The exit poll showed Law and Justice (PiS) got 36.8% of the vote, Civic Coalition (KO) 31.6%, Third Way 13% and The Left (Lewica) 8.6%.
If confirmed, the result would mean that Civic Coalition, Third Way and The Left would have a majority in Poland’s parliament.
It appears that turnout hit a historic high.
Many Poles waited in long lines to vote. Past 1am local time there were still people voting in one polling station in Wrocław.
“We won democracy, we won freedom, we won our free beloved Poland … This day will be remembered in history as a bright day, the rebirth of Poland,” Tusk told supporters.
Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS chair, said his party’s result was a big success but admitted “we don’t know” whether the party had a path to government. “Days of fight and tension await us,” he said.
European politicians who have been critical of Law and Justice’s policies celebrated the exit poll results, with experts saying that a Tusk victory would give Warsaw a much bigger voice on the European stage.
Another exit poll is expected to be published in the early morning hours, but the final outcome may only be available well into the day.
Read the full story here and stay tuned for updates on the Guardian site.
Civic Platform's parliamentary election night 2023 in Warsaw - 15 Oct 2023 Photograph: Attila Husejnow/SOPA Images/Shutterstock
There is a lot of excitement among Polish opposition supporters tonight, after the publication of an exit poll suggesting the opposition has a path to forming a government. We are still waiting for more numbers.
Political party workers react to Poland’s exit poll. Photograph: Damian Burzykowski/Newspix/ZUMA Press/Shutterstock
“The nightmare ends,” wrote Bart Staszewski, a Polish LGBTI+ activist.
I am gay, I am Polish and I am proud today. After eight years of hate against people like me, LGBT+ people, the creation of LGBT free zones, attacks on women and minorities, Poland is BACK on the path of democracy and the rule of law. This is also end of political trails of… pic.twitter.com/S6BFClZDED
Election opens way for 'massive reorientation' of Polish policy, expert says
Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Warsaw office, said this evening that “the opposition’s victory is the result of a growing fatigue with the PiS government in the society, beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals”.
“The liberals have won the absolute majority but the process of forming a government may not be easy and straightforward,” Buras noted, adding that an opposition win “opens the way for a massive reorientation of Poland’s domestic and European policy”.
If the exit poll results are confirmed, experts point to a number of surprises in the election outcome – particularly when it comes to the very high turnout.
What were the surprises (against pre-vote average polls) shaping the (provisional) results?
Above all, turnout, which smashed all records.
PiS more or less as expected. KO and especially Third Way did better. Left slightly below expectations. Konfederacja significantly below.
Borys Budka, chair of Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition parliamentary fraction, said this evening that the “Polish people proved we don’t want Polexit”.
“We stopped Polexit today. Democracy in Poland stopped Polexit because the third term for PiS would mean Polexit,” he said.
Speaking about possible PiS moves in the coming days if the final results confirm exit polling that the opposition has a route to government, Budka said: “I’m not sure Kaczyński is a person who can make a revolution now. He is not very strong. He looks very tired and even if they try any tricks it wouldn’t be something which changed the result.”
When it comes to discussions on building an opposition coalition, Budka noted that there are still no official results.
“The next 40 hours, 60 hours will show how we build this coalition. But for us it’s obvious that coalition will be us, the Third Way and the Left,” he said.
The next days will show what happens in Poland and I am quite sure that the president will have to appoint the candidate of the majority in the Sejm. We have democracy, we have results of elections and we will build the coalition with the new prime minister.
As we wait for more numbers, here are more photos from Poland today.
Counting votes in the elections to the Sejm and Senate in Wroclaw, Poland. Photograph: Krzysztof Zatycki/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock
Members of the electoral commission open the ballot box at a polling station to start counting the votes after the close of polls. Photograph: Lukasz Gdak/East News/Shutterstock
Donald Tusk, leader of the largest opposition grouping, Civic Coalition (KO), gives a victory sign after exit poll results are announced. Photograph: Kacper Pempel/Reuters
Poland’s election and exit poll results are getting significant attention abroad.
Siegfried Mureșan, a member of the European parliament and vice-chair of the centre-right European People’s Party group, said that “Poland is back.”
Terry Reintke, co-president of the Greens in the European parliament, said “this evening could be a massive game changer for Europe.”
Poland is back. By far the most important election in Europe this year is the Polish national election. It ended tonight with a victory for democracy. Opposition won majority of seats. The eurosceptic Polish government lost. Congratulations Donald #Tusk! #Polska#Wybory23
Adam Bodnar, the former Polish ombudsman and current senate candidate, said an opposition win was due in large part to civil society’s fight for a democratic Poland.
Zwycięstwo demokratycznej opozycji to przede wszystkim wielkie zobowiązanie wobec społeczeństwa obywatelskiego, które walczyło o demokratyczną Polskę i marzy o odzyskaniu zaufania do własnego państwa. Dziękuję za Wasz głos! ✌🏻🇵🇱
Max Bergmann, director of the Europe programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggests that an opposition victory in Poland could contribute to a power shift eastward within the EU.
Potentially huge news out of Poland. With all the talk of power shifting eastward in the EU, the reality is that it hadn’t shifted. That’s because the PIS Polish govt hadn’t offered a positive vision for Europe (in contrast to Estonia). A new pro-EU Polish govt c/d move things. https://t.co/ZK6jXRGnOv
Opposition victory would mean ‘safety’ for women, MP says
Shaun Walker
Barbara Nowacka, a Civic Coalition MP who has been fiercely critical of PiS crackdown on abortion rights, told me she has little doubt that the election results will give the opposition the possibility to form a government.
“No matter what they will say, we know we won … the opposition will have more seats than the ruling party plus Konfederacja,” she said.
I asked her what an opposition victory would mean for Polish women:
“Safety. Finally safety. Young women won’t be afraid to get pregnant, young women won’t be afraid to go to the doctor. Women won’t be afraid that the Istanbul Convention, which gives them the right to be protected from domestic violence, won’t be implemented. Schools will be free and democratic without the moronic minister of education.”
Celebratory vibes in Tusk's Civil Coalition headquarters where Tusk declared victory just minutes after an exit poll showed opposition coalition should be possible (if exit poll correct). Everyone very confident they've done it.
Despite the opposition’s very strong showing in exit polling, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki posted an upbeat message on social media celebrating Law and Justice’s results.
❗️WYGRALIŚMY❗️ ❗️Prawo i Sprawiedliwość zwycięzcą wyborów parlamentarnych 2023❗️ ❤️🇵🇱❤️ Dziękujemy. Niech żyje Polska❗️ pic.twitter.com/TiYjnXWSUf
What would an opposition win mean for Poland’s energy transition?
Ajit Niranjan
Poland is Europe’s coal king.
Even as businesses and individuals have put heat pumps in homes and stuck solar panels on roofs – helped in part by government subsidies – Law and Justice has said it sides firmly with the coal industry. The party has promised workers they can keep mining coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, until 2049. To keep global heating to 1.5C, the International Energy Agency expects rich countries to shut down coal plants by 2030.
“In general the transformation is taking place,” said Zuzanna Rudzińska-Bluszcz, head of the Polish branch of environmental nonprofit ClientEarth. “But in declarations, they treat coal as Polish gold.”
Analysts say an opposition win could turn that around. Before the election, Civic Platform said it will aim to make 65% of Poland’s electricity from renewables by 2030.
“This direction is popular among the electorate and the businesses keen to replace polluting and expensive generation from hard coal and lignite,” said Michał Smoleń, who runs the energy and climate programme at Fundacja Instrat thinktank.
But a progressive coalition would still have its work cut out to pass meaningful climate policies, he added. “Major programmes initiated in the last years – such as development of offshore wind and nuclear power – will likely continue. But governing and implementing the transition will not be easy.”
In particular, he said, the coalition would be unprecedentedly broad, President Duda would still have veto power until 2025, and there could be strong opposition from coal workers’ unions.
